Q4 outlook
The housebuilding sector still has a plethora of flashing red indicators, with interest rates up while year on year mortgage approvals and brick deliveries were down 16% and 10% respectively.
And all that is before you factor in the ever growing cost of living and immediate crisis in petrol and diesel costs. Little wonder that housebuilders like Bellway are guiding downwards for H1 2027.
It has yet to be seen whether the 10% uplift on completions mooted for the new ‘Your First Home’ policy is realistic. It may help affordability in expensive areas for some, but until price caps and income limits are known this may be an optimistic outlook, especially with interest rates rising and monthly payments becoming as much if not more of an issue as deposits. In lower priced areas, the constraint remains site viability, already struggling before the Building Safety Levy kicked in this month, as well as the looming costs associated with the Future Homes Standard.
So while Q3 was our best of the year so far, we’re expecting Q4 and the first half of 2027 to remain challenging in line with the market, with a better second half to next year (helped by comparison with the battlefield that is 2026). Our strong order book and pipeline will carry us across the dip – meanwhile we’re watching conversion of quotes to call offs closely to see where both hesitation and confidence shift first.
James Scott
MD
